Nenets Autonomous Area

Geographical characteristics: about 95% of the region is located in the permafrost zone. The region is subject to higher predicted temperature rise due to its proximity to the Arctic Ocean. The coastal zones are characterized by soil erosion due to permafrost degradation, especially in areas of the Kara Sea, which washes the Nenets Autonomous Area.

Economic risks:

- The region will incur high financial costs to overcome the negative consequences of permafrost degradation compared to other permafrost regions - 5% of the annual GRP.

- 75% of all infrastructure is located in the permafrost zone, of which 40% is subject to significant negative effects from its melting.

- The largest decrease in the bearing capacity is projected for the most populated and developed areas of the Nenets Autonomous Area. About one third of the total costs of rebuilding damaged residential and nonresidential structures are connected exactly to the loss of the bearing capacity (by 33% by 2050).The seasonal thaw layer is forecasted to increase (by more than 0,39 m by 2050), soil subsidence (14 cm by 2050), which will degrade infrastructure and complicate the conditions for the extraction of raw materials.

- It is predicted that by 2050. 99% of all buildings will be damaged as a result of permafrost degradation.

Social risks: 28% of the population are indigenous small-numbered peoples of the North, of whom more than 60% live in remote areas. There is a high proportion of urban and rural residential structures that will be destroyed by permafrost degradation. Peoples living on the coast of the Kara Sea are forced to relocate as a result of shoreline retreat caused by soil erosion. In this region, the issue of climate migration or climate refugees of indigenous small-numbered peoples may also arise.

Research and Project Interest: Studies on the effects of methane on underwater permafrost degradation, Practical projects on adaptation of indigenous peoples to climate change, Research and pilot practical projects on infrastructure adaptation to permafrost degradation.

Conclusion: A region with great oil and gas potential and significant risks of oil and gas infrastructure (oil and gas pipelines) destruction. In terms of social risks, most of the population, including the indigenous small-numbered peoples of the North, will be adversely affected by permafrost degradation, which includes the destruction of residential buildings and public infrastructure.