Geographical characteristics: The region is less susceptible to predictable temperature increases due to its remoteness from the Arctic Ocean. Most of the region is located outside the continuous permafrost zone, but the most industrially developed center, Vorkuta, is located in the region of continuous permafrost.
- By 2050, it is predicted the seasonally thawed layer level to increase by 0.5 m, the bearing capacity to decrease by 32% and the ground to subside by 12 cm. About one third of all rehabilitation costs for damaged residential buildings and non-residential structures are due to this decrease in bearing capacity.
- By 2050, 100% of buildings are projected to be damaged as a result of permafrost degradation, at a total cost of US $2.17 billion.
- 89.1% of infrastructure will be damaged as a result of permafrost melting by mid-century.
- 2.2% of the annual GRP is needed to mitigate the negative effects of permafrost degradation and to maintain infrastructure.
Social risks: The indigenous small-numbered peoples of the North living in Komi and national minorities make up about 30% of the population of the Republic. Social risks for the whole population and national minorities are related to destruction of residential buildings, public infrastructure, reduction of the area for agricultural activities (especially for reindeer herding) and hunting in the regions of rural population, the spread of diseases and toxic substances previously preserved in permafrost.
Research and project interest: Practical projects on pasture restoration. Research projects on infrastructure adaptation to climate change.
Conclusions: In Komi Republic, the main risks are the destruction of infrastructure and buildings due to reduced bearing capacity and ground subsidence. Given the scale of predicted damage, implementation of permafrost protection and strengthening activities in the region will be in line with local demand.